When I say I’m 80% sure I will have that project done by Friday, what do I mean by that? What I should mean is that in 8 out of 10 similar situations I would be done by Friday and in 2 out of 10 I would not.

In reality people are frequently miscalibrated. When they say 80% it may in fact turn out that only in 5 out of 10 similar projects they would be done by the predicted date.

We had a very successful Rationality Freiburg meetup on a sunny Friday afternoon. We opened our discussion with the Fake Beliefs sequence, and afterward, we played the game Double Crux, which can be a potent tool for resolving disagreements.

Our second Rationality Freiburg meetup took place on June 3rd and shone a lot of light on the topic of rationality despite the gloomy weather forecast.

The first Rationality Freiburg meetup on Friday the 13th was a fantastic, international event with lovely weather and fascinating topics!

Rationality is a desire to see the world as it is, not as you wished it to be. It is about accepting the fallibility of human cognition and nevertheless striving to reach valuable conclusions. It’s applying empirical thinking to prove yourself wrong. It’s being humble and thirsty.

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